ANC likely to win elections with more than 60%

Maleka Charles

The governing ANC will win the election but with less support than it had in 2014, Letsohla's analysis of real-time election results shows.

The party is set to come in below 60%. It secured 62.15% of support in 2014.

According to Letsohla's statistical analysis, based on available and representative results:

· The ANC will win a majority of 50% plus one needed to form a government.

· Its majority will however be reduced from 2014.

· It is likely to come in under 60%.

· Election modelling shows the ANC's likely range to be between 56% and 59%.

Letsohla has identified two main drivers of the ANC's weaker performance: less support among black voters and lower national voter turnout.

"Lower black voter support is a big problem for the ANC. That is shown by our numbers in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. In 2014, the ANC secured 80% of black voters, but it seems like this year they will end up on 75%.

"This is even more pronounced in KwaZulu-Natal where in the southern parts of the province, their share of black voter support dropped from 85% to 72%. In the northern part of the province, IFP heartland, it dropped from 30% to 25%."

Letsohla's preliminary numbers also show that the ANC hasn't been able to turn out as many voters compared to 2014. 

"The ANC's turnout seems to be between 62%, 63%. In 2014 it was between 69% and 70%.”

This does not compare well to DA-dominated suburban voting districts where voter turnout reached up to 80%.

"There are some important and big traditional ANC voting districts that still need to come in, including Soweto and areas in eTthekwini, such as Umlazi."